Bracketology

KenPom Bracketology

Legend
3+ Overseeded
2 Overseeded
Within 1 seed
2 Underseeded
3+ Underseeded
Why was 11 seed Washington favored over 3 seed New Mexico in 2010? What impact does 'mis-seeding' have on the Tournament? Looking at the brackets through the lens of advance computer ratings such as KenPom reveals insights about the Committee and where to spot more probable 'upsets.'

Here we use a subjective methodology to give teams what their 'KenPom seed' might be, then spot how far it varies from their given seed. Rather than splitting all teams into strict groups of 4 for a seed line, we created more liberal parameters for the seed lines: e.g. a 10 'KenPom seed' is given to any team ranked between 114 and 165. Stated differently, the #4, #5, or #6 KenPom-ranked team is around '1-seed quality' and the #100 team is around '14-seed quality.' The cells below are color-coded to indicate how overseeded or underseeded a team is.
Seed Min Max Avg
1 1 6 4
2 7 12 9
3 13 16 15
4 17 19 17
5 20 24 21
6 25 29 27
7 30 32 32
8 33 35 32
9 36 39 38
10 40 44 41
11 45 49 48
12 50 61 50
13 62 80 72
14 81 113 89
15 114 165 138
16 166 350 193

East

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Connecticut BE 10 2 1
16 Colgate PL 208 16 0
8 Auburn SEC 26 6 -2
9 SMU ACC 36 9 0
5 Tennessee SEC 18 4 -1
12 William & Mary CAA 141 15 3
4 Kansas B12 12 2 -2
13 Illinois St. MVC 84 14 1
6 Arkansas SEC 25 6 0
11 Ohio St. B10 42 10 -1
11 Miami FL ACC 37 9 -2
3 Michigan St. B10 9 2 -1
14 Quinnipiac MAAC 194 16 2
7 St. John's BE 21 5 -2
10 LSU SEC 48 11 1
2 Duke ACC 3 1 -1
15 Vermont AE 221 16 1

West

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Arizona B12 2 1 0
16 LIU NEC 195 16 0
8 Saint Mary's WCC 35 8 0
9 UCLA B10 38 9 0
5 Florida SEC 7 2 -3
12 Akron MAC 52 12 0
4 Nebraska B10 13 3 -1
13 Liberty CUSA 86 14 1
6 USC B10 50 12 6
11 Tulsa Amer 55 12 1
3 Illinois B10 5 1 -2
14 Northern Colorado BSky 186 16 2
7 Utah St. MWC 31 7 0
10 Baylor B12 51 12 2
2 Gonzaga WCC 11 2 0
15 Furman SC 178 16 1

Midwest

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Michigan B10 1 1 0
16 Lindenwood OVC 236 16 0
16 Howard MEAC 250 16 0
8 Georgia SEC 40 10 2
9 UCF B12 45 11 2
5 Texas Tech B12 22 5 0
12 Utah Valley WAC 92 14 2
4 North Carolina ACC 29 6 2
13 Arkansas St. SB 170 16 3
6 Iowa B10 19 4 -2
11 Butler BE 73 13 2
11 Oklahoma SEC 66 13 2
3 Houston B12 6 1 -2
14 Lipscomb ASun 160 15 1
7 Villanova BE 28 6 -1
10 N.C. State ACC 23 5 -5
2 Vanderbilt SEC 14 3 1
15 St. Thomas Sum 130 15 0

South

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Iowa St. B12 4 1 0
16 Milwaukee Horz 257 16 0
16 Grambling St. SWAC 260 16 0
8 Clemson ACC 32 7 -1
9 Seton Hall BE 49 11 2
5 Louisville ACC 16 3 -2
12 Yale Ivy 75 13 1
4 Alabama SEC 20 5 1
13 High Point BSth 97 14 1
6 Virginia ACC 17 4 -2
11 Indiana B10 33 8 -3
3 BYU B12 15 3 0
14 Hawaii BW 94 14 0
7 Kentucky SEC 30 7 0
10 Saint Louis A10 24 5 -5
2 Purdue B10 8 2 0
15 Stephen F. Austin Slnd 87 14 -1
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