Bracketology

KenPom Bracketology

Legend
3+ Overseeded
2 Overseeded
Within 1 seed
2 Underseeded
3+ Underseeded
Why was 11 seed Washington favored over 3 seed New Mexico in 2010? What impact does 'mis-seeding' have on the Tournament? Looking at the brackets through the lens of advance computer ratings such as KenPom reveals insights about the Committee and where to spot more probable 'upsets.'

Here we use a subjective methodology to give teams what their 'KenPom seed' might be, then spot how far it varies from their given seed. Rather than splitting all teams into strict groups of 4 for a seed line, we created more liberal parameters for the seed lines: e.g. a 10 'KenPom seed' is given to any team ranked between 114 and 165. Stated differently, the #4, #5, or #6 KenPom-ranked team is around '1-seed quality' and the #100 team is around '14-seed quality.' The cells below are color-coded to indicate how overseeded or underseeded a team is.
Seed Min Max Avg
1 1 6 4
2 7 12 9
3 13 16 15
4 17 19 17
5 20 24 21
6 25 29 27
7 30 32 32
8 33 35 32
9 36 39 38
10 40 44 41
11 45 49 48
12 50 61 50
13 62 80 72
14 81 113 89
15 114 165 138
16 166 350 193

East

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Duke ACC 3 1 0
16 Vermont AE 211 16 0
8 Utah St. MWC 36 9 1
9 Wisconsin B10 27 6 -3
5 Illinois B10 17 4 -1
12 Akron MAC 54 12 0
4 Florida SEC 12 2 -2
13 UNC Wilmington CAA 103 14 1
6 Indiana B10 26 6 0
11 Butler BE 41 10 -1
11 Georgia SEC 21 5 -6
3 Iowa St. B12 4 1 -2
14 Northern Colorado BSky 154 15 1
7 Arkansas SEC 30 7 0
10 Virginia ACC 24 5 -5
2 Connecticut BE 6 1 -1
15 Quinnipiac MAAC 178 16 1

West

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Arizona B12 8 2 1
16 Tennessee St. OVC 243 16 0
8 Nebraska B10 48 11 3
9 SMU ACC 43 10 1
5 St. John's BE 18 4 -1
12 Belmont MVC 84 14 2
4 Tennessee SEC 16 3 -1
13 Tulsa Amer 85 14 1
6 Texas Tech B12 31 7 1
11 Saint Louis A10 44 10 -1
3 Michigan St. B10 10 2 -1
14 East Tennessee St. SC 125 15 1
7 Baylor B12 29 6 -1
10 UCLA B10 33 8 -2
2 Gonzaga WCC 5 1 -1
15 Austin Peay ASun 180 16 1

Midwest

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Michigan B10 1 1 0
16 LIU NEC 232 16 0
16 Norfolk St. MEAC 230 16 0
8 Missouri SEC 38 9 1
9 N.C. State ACC 35 8 -1
5 North Carolina ACC 23 5 0
12 UC San Diego BW 95 14 2
4 Vanderbilt SEC 7 2 -2
13 Cal Baptist WAC 134 15 2
6 Kentucky SEC 15 3 -3
11 Yale Ivy 76 13 2
3 Louisville ACC 13 3 0
14 Oakland Horz 144 15 1
7 Iowa B10 32 7 0
10 LSU SEC 25 6 -4
2 Houston B12 9 2 0
15 St. Thomas Sum 181 16 1

South

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Purdue B10 2 1 0
16 Incarnate Word Slnd 179 16 0
16 Southern SWAC 203 16 0
8 Clemson ACC 22 5 -3
9 Oklahoma St. B12 51 12 3
5 Auburn SEC 20 5 0
12 High Point BSth 81 14 2
4 Kansas B12 19 4 0
13 New Mexico St. CUSA 119 15 2
6 USC B10 28 6 0
11 TCU B12 49 11 0
11 Texas SEC 57 12 1
3 Alabama SEC 14 3 0
14 South Alabama SB 148 15 1
7 Saint Mary's WCC 34 8 1
10 Ohio St. B10 37 9 -1
2 BYU B12 11 2 0
15 Colgate PL 165 15 0
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