Bracketology

KenPom Bracketology

Legend
3+ Overseeded
2 Overseeded
Within 1 seed
2 Underseeded
3+ Underseeded
Why was 11 seed Washington favored over 3 seed New Mexico in 2010? What impact does 'mis-seeding' have on the Tournament? Looking at the brackets through the lens of advance computer ratings such as KenPom reveals insights about the Committee and where to spot more probable 'upsets.'

Here we use a subjective methodology to give teams what their 'KenPom seed' might be, then spot how far it varies from their given seed. Rather than splitting all teams into strict groups of 4 for a seed line, we created more liberal parameters for the seed lines: e.g. a 10 'KenPom seed' is given to any team ranked between 114 and 165. Stated differently, the #4, #5, or #6 KenPom-ranked team is around '1-seed quality' and the #100 team is around '14-seed quality.' The cells below are color-coded to indicate how overseeded or underseeded a team is.
Seed Min Max Avg
1 1 6 4
2 7 12 9
3 13 16 15
4 17 19 17
5 20 24 21
6 25 29 27
7 30 32 32
8 33 35 32
9 36 39 38
10 40 44 41
11 45 49 48
12 50 61 50
13 62 80 72
14 81 113 89
15 114 165 138
16 166 350 193

East

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Florida SEC 3 1 0
16 Navy PL 276 16 0
8 N.C. State ACC 126 15 7
9 Mississippi St. SEC 33 8 -1
5 Arkansas SEC 36 9 4
12 Akron MAC 100 14 2
4 Arizona B12 12 2 -2
13 UC Irvine BW 67 13 0
6 North Carolina ACC 31 7 1
11 VCU A10 34 8 -3
3 UCLA B10 23 5 2
7 Ohio St. B10 37 9 2
10 Mississippi SEC 20 5 -5
2 Connecticut BE 32 7 5
15 Florida Gulf Coast ASun 179 16 1

West

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Duke ACC 1 1 0
16 Southern SWAC 232 16 0
16 Vermont AE 241 16 0
8 Texas SEC 44 10 2
9 Cincinnati B12 55 12 3
5 Iowa St. B12 10 2 -3
12 Liberty CUSA 64 13 1
4 Illinois B10 17 4 0
13 High Point BSth 85 14 1
6 Wisconsin B10 13 3 -3
11 Memphis Amer 51 12 1
3 BYU B12 26 6 3
14 Utah Valley WAC 116 15 1
7 Oregon B10 28 6 -1
10 Marquette BE 29 6 -4
2 Kentucky SEC 16 3 1
15 Little Rock OVC 226 16 1

Midwest

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Purdue B10 15 3 2
16 Norfolk St. MEAC 178 16 0
8 Baylor B12 30 7 -1
9 Vanderbilt SEC 47 11 2
5 Alabama SEC 6 1 -4
12 Yale Ivy 74 13 1
4 Texas Tech B12 8 2 -2
13 Illinois St. MVC 132 15 2
6 Michigan St. B10 7 2 -4
11 Virginia ACC 107 14 3
11 Villanova BE 56 12 1
3 Tennessee SEC 5 1 -2
14 Troy SB 95 14 0
7 San Diego St. MWC 54 12 5
10 Iowa B10 63 13 3
2 St. John's BE 14 3 1
15 Siena MAAC 253 16 1

South

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Houston B12 2 1 0
16 Montana BSky 163 15 -1
8 Missouri SEC 19 4 -4
9 USC B10 62 13 4
5 Kansas B12 24 5 0
12 McNeese Slnd 58 12 0
4 Gonzaga WCC 9 2 -2
13 UNC Wilmington CAA 106 14 1
6 Auburn SEC 4 1 -5
11 Washington B10 104 14 3
11 Boise St. MWC 48 11 0
3 Louisville ACC 27 6 3
14 Furman SC 141 15 1
7 Creighton BE 35 8 1
10 Saint Mary's WCC 25 6 -4
2 Michigan B10 22 5 3
15 Youngstown St. Horz 199 16 1
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